What Will Happen with the Economy?

In the last two months, we have participated in at least 4 or 5 different economic updates from the perspective of the local area, the region, the state, the nation and the global economy. We have also participated with a group of global consultants to discuss the economy and what impacts are likely around the world. So, what do the experts think? What will happen with the economy and what should we be thinking and doing now to be as successful as possible in 2021?

First, at the high level, every economist agreed that the year looks positive, mainly because the vaccine is getting distributed which will spur on spending. There is certainly pent up demand. It absolutely seems likely as everyone plans their first trip to see relatives and schedules family vacations. With that said, it depends on your specific location, how dependent it is on the hospitality industry and how much it has been affected by lockdowns. For example, the Inland Southern California region has done well with the rise of e-commerce, warehousing and cargo operations; however, it will be significantly negatively impacted with the cancellation of the Coachella music festival.

Generally speaking, the economists think the stimulus bill will give the economy a shot in the arm near-term; however, it will circle back with higher taxes and other implications in years down-the-line. They expect consumers to spend the stimulus checks and the states and educational institutions to spend the funds allocated, stimulating the economy in 2021. If the minimum wage passes, it will have a devastating impact on low wage states and companies with lower skilled jobs, and it will have a positive impact on the companies ahead of the curve with higher skilled jobs and those that can turn it into an advantage.

Most of the economists thought inflation was a possibility down-the-line but not for the immediate future. The price of gold has been steadily climbing, and the price of oil has been increasing as the political scene changes.

E-commerce has advanced 10 years since COVID began, and it isn’t going back. This is driving significant differences in how consumer demand is fulfilled, driving repercussions throughout the extended supply chain. Technological advancements expected by 2035 are occurring as we speak. The pace of change is significant, and these continuing advancements will impact the economy. Seek out additional updates and create a resilient supply chain to successfully navigate these changing conditions.